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Co-ordination: Juan Puigdefabregas EEZA (CSIC)
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System Dynamics Silvio
Martínez Vicente Instituto
de Economía y Geografía Phone:
0034914111098 +231 The aim of this group is to explore through a family simulation models, named Hispamed, the dynamic of desertification in Spain due to different causes. On many ocassions deserts are the result of innappropiate human activity. To show this, sustainable development and natural resources over-use are compared. In this kind of situations variables change along the time, there are many factors (economic, environmental, social) implicated and there are feedbacks so the final results are not easily forecasted. The System Dymanics is a fit tool to analyze this problem and it is used through the software Vensim. Desertification by salination (Hispamed-Dessal) has been the first model of the family. The nucleus of the model reflects the confrontation producing by increasing the amount of irrigated land in order to increase short-term agriculture income, as opposed to an alternative strategy of less intensive use of water aimed at longterm sustainable development. In other simulation models the subject will be overgrazing, forestal fire, inappropiate crops and lands abandonment getting a global idea of the desertification processes.
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